Tracking the numbers to help you understand the industry
Source: Compass Intelligence, 2015 Earlier this month, I published an overview report on the mobile carrier 2Q 2015 reported numbers (2Q 2015 Mobile Industry Update: Total Industry and Top 4 Carrier Overview). I looked at basic financials like revenue, end of quarter subscriber counts, churn and other key areas like tablet growth. The graphic below depicts how smartphone growth has really boosted the market in the last few years. Today, there are over 230M active smartphones but growth is slowing. Subsequently, the mobile carriers are focused on tablet activations and on connected devices, especially as the connected car and consumer wearables gain momentum.
However, let me step back and say something about these metrics, since we all know it's easier to make a qualitative statement about the market without many factoids or context. Tracking quarterly financials is key for any strategic planning organization and market analytics firm for that matter. This information feeds into market forecast models and is used to recognize patterns and trends that reflect the state of the market. This information is pivotal in understanding the foundation of the business, which is why you will often see this type of information referred to as "foundational analysis." It by no means an exhaustive financial analysis but it is intended to be more than a guess of what's happening around us.
With that said, here are some of the key takeaways from the last quarter:
However, let me step back and say something about these metrics, since we all know it's easier to make a qualitative statement about the market without many factoids or context. Tracking quarterly financials is key for any strategic planning organization and market analytics firm for that matter. This information feeds into market forecast models and is used to recognize patterns and trends that reflect the state of the market. This information is pivotal in understanding the foundation of the business, which is why you will often see this type of information referred to as "foundational analysis." It by no means an exhaustive financial analysis but it is intended to be more than a guess of what's happening around us.
With that said, here are some of the key takeaways from the last quarter:
- Installment and leasing plans are transforming the market. CI estimates 58M (229% over this time last year) out of 247M postpaid subs (or about 23%) are on these types of plans.
- Overall churn numbers in postpaid are pretty good, which is interesting in the hyper competitive environment.
- Smartphone growth is slowing but tablets and other connected devices are on the rise. Tablet growth is up 40% in the quarter when compared to 2Q14.
Source: Compass Intelligence, 2015
Verizon, the one with the most to lose, has managed to keep postpaid churn below 1%, despite the aggressive TMO pricing and promotions. AT&T is focused, among other things, on the Next program. The company is moving to a subsidy free consumer model. Another big story coming out of the second quarter is T-Mobile's move into 3rd place based on subscribers. the company does continue to report stellar numbers as they reported 2.1M net adds in 2Q15. Finally, Sprint had some good news this quarter as it reported the lowest churn ever at 1.56%. Financing around its device leasing program and other challenges remain, however.
For more information on our mobile and wireless research or Annual Service Plans, which includes metrics tracking, competitive analysis, newsletter creation and more, please contact Kate Pearce kpearce@compassintelligence.com or click on this link.
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